9.D.1 Validating and refining risk assessment models for
invasive species
Robust risk assessment models for the import
and keeping of exotic animals in Australia and New Zealand have
been developed and tested in this project involving the Bureau of
Rural Sciences (BRS) in the Australian Department of Agriculture,
Fisheries and Forestry, and Western Australia’s Department of
Food and Agriculture (DAFWA).
The project has produced refined models for
assessing the likelihood of new species establishing in the wild,
for (i) birds and mammals, (ii) freshwater fish and (iii) reptiles
and amphibians. A literature review of factors
increasing the likelihood that an established species will become
a pest has also been completed. The final report Risk
assessment models for the establishment of exotic vertebrates in
Australia and New Zealand incorporates the models and
literature review and is available from the 'Documents' link
on this page. Software for performing climate
matching as part of the risk assessment process has also been
improved and web-enabled; this CLIMATCH software will be available
on the BRS website (see http://www.brs.gov.au/climatch).
A range of species and factors have been looked
at to develop and refine the models. The following factors were
found to be important predictors of whether a species can
successfully establish in the wild:
For birds, whether or not the bird species is
migratory is also important (obligate migratory species are less
likely to establish).
The new models
and literature review will allow for more accurate predictions of
whether an exotic animal species could become invasive in
Australia. Some forty species are now being ranked by DAFWA
for their pest potential in Australia, from Low to Extreme. These
species include some farmed species (sheep, deer and ostrich) and
others being kept in Australia as pets or zoo exhibits.
The models will be used to guide the Australian
and state governments in their decisions to import, trade or keep
exotic vertebrates in Australia.
Sample
CLIMATCH output.
