Predicting pest distribution in 2020
Project Leader: Dr Greg Hood, Bureau of Rural Sciences
Aim: To predict the distribution of key vertebrate pest species in 2020 under a future climate scenario.
Projects: 12.d.7
Project summary
Climate change has the potential to allow new and existing pests to establish and expand their ranges, increasing the threat they pose to biodiversity. To respond to these threats, we need to know the current extent and impacts of pest animals, how the distribution of pests is affected by climate and habitat, and how climate and habitats will change in the future.
The project is using statistical models to predict the distribution of key vertebrate pest species under a future climate scenario for the year 2020. In addition to climate, a range of biophysical variables were assembled for use in the models where it was believed they may play a role in influencing the distribution and abundance of the pest species. The study is using three different global climate models to gauge variation in the predicted response of pest species distributions. Ensemble methods, such as boosted regression trees and random forests have been the most productive techniques used to date.
Results indicate climate variables feature strongly in the model for cane toads and rabbits, with the models displaying reasonably good ability to correctly classify these species as either present or absent. However, it appears that the distribution of goats and feral pigs is heavily influenced by human activities, and in the case of goats, the human-induced exclusion of dingoes and wild dogs. Changes in agricultural land use due to climate change may well influence the distribution of pest species. However, while future climate scenarios have explicitly been included in the data for the project, future land use scenarios have not.
The species distribution modelling approach is also being applied to feral cats, wild deer, wild dogs, foxes, Indian mynas and starlings, including examining changes in density. Where climate plays a role, maps of the predicted extent of important pest animals in NSW will be produced to help government agencies and the community plan for pest control activities in the future.
Key achievements
- Procedures developed, including testing of three different climate models.
- Priority pest species identified.
- Key deliverables 2009-10 final report on species distributions, with associated web site.
Project team
Dr Benjamin Russell, Dr Andrew Leys, Dr Paul Downey (NSW DECCW), Dr Jeanine Baker, Dr Greg Hood, Leane Brown, Hilary Johnson, Bo Raphael, Phillip Tennant, Dr Peter Caley (BRS).
Project partners
IA CRC, Bureau of Rural Sciences, NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water
Further information
For further information, contact us.
